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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 10:27 GMT | #2243886 |   | Split
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8780657/Nasa-satellite-the-size-of-bus-could-land-almost-anywhere.html

Quote


Nasa and the US Department of Defense are tracking the 35ft spacecraft, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or (UARS), as it heads towards the planet at five miles per second.
Experts say there is a one-in-3,200 risk of the space junk, which weighs six tons, hitting someone.
However, its speed means that there will only be a 20-minute warning before it strikes.
Debris is expected to scatter across a 500-mile area, with the biggest chunk weighing 300lb, the weight of a large refrigerator.
The anticipated landing area spans cities as far north as Edinburgh and as far south as Cape Horn, on the southern coast of South America.



A quick Q&A

This is quite interesting to know that they have no idea until it pretty much starts re-entry where it's going to potentially hit.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 12:34 GMT | #2243890 |   | Split
It's pretty crazy. I mean if it's about to hit somewhere they don't have a great alert system. Some people could really get fucked by this


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 12:37 GMT | #2243892 |   | Split
Ooh cool, I hope it lands outside my house so I can run out, lie under it and scream. There's a claim right there.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 12:58 GMT | #2243899 |   | Split
This is fairly badass news, although I'm a bit grieved by some of the coverage of it. Some quarters are claiming that you've got a 1 in 3000 chance of being hit by it, which isn't actually that unlikely. It's also not strictly true. That's only the odds of it hitting a person. The odds of it hitting a particular person are spectacular.

Still. I can't have been the only person that read the news, crossed their fingers, and hoped for David Cameron.



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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 13:01 GMT | #2243900 |   | Split
If I've done my maths correctly, which is unlikely, there's roughly a one in two trillion chance of it hitting a particular person. But that's not taking into account the most likely landing zones etc.

But yeah, one in 3000 isn't that unlikely. In a way I hope it does hit someone or something important. Imagine the headlines: 'BORIS JOHNSON STUCK BY FALLING SATELLITE'. What a day that would be.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 13:04 GMT | #2243901 |   | Split
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NASA has warned people not to touch the debris if they come across it because it is likely to have sharp edges.







Take the pieces and build them skywards.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 13:11 GMT | #2243903 |   | Split
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no-name :
. Imagine the headlines: 'BORIS JOHNSON STUCK BY FALLING SATELLITE'. What a day that would be.



That would be terrible.

^ Don't touch it? Unlikely, I'd be holding them for ransom or better yet just nick it and keep it for myself.

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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 13:17 GMT | #2243905 |   | Split
I don't know what the actual odds are, but I would suspect that there's an awful lot of zeroes.

In a way, I hope it doesn't just crash into the ocean. I'd like to see the hole it would leave in a field or something.



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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 15:05 GMT | #2243928 |   | Split
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no-name :
In a way I hope it does hit someone or something important. Imagine the headlines: 'BORIS JOHNSON STUCK BY FALLING SATELLITE'. What a day that would be.


Pretty much this, although not Boris Johnson.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 15:22 GMT | #2243934 |   | Split

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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 16:31 GMT | #2243957 |   | Split
Wow, one in 3000 really isn't that unlikely. I wonder what would happen to Nasa if that actually happens.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 18:15 GMT | #2244020 |   | Split
I know when Skylab crashed in Australia they fined NASA $300 for littering.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 18:22 GMT | #2244025 |   | Split
Nasa satellite the size of bus 'could land almost anywhere'

The Moon?




Also, it will land in the sea.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 18:42 GMT | #2244040 |   | Split
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wiljones :


Also, it will land in the sea.



That's dull, which generally means it's what will happen. Latest guesstimates suggest the southern ocean.

What's not dull is Fox news, the first 5 seconds are gold.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1174477405001/space-junk-to-enter-earths-atmosphere/


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 20:06 GMT | #2244106 |   | Split
Bill Nye the Science Guy is the man!


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 20:17 GMT | #2244124 |   | Split
I'll be on the lookout for bus-sized shadows over my head in the near future then.

Also, Bill Nye IS the man.


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Report this post | 22 Sep 2011 20:31 GMT | #2244132 |   | Split
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no-name :
Ooh cool, I hope it lands outside my house so I can run out, lie under it and scream. There's a claim right there.



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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 11:45 GMT | #2244323 |   | Split
Sweet, now a German telescope is coming down in October.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20955-second-big-satellite-set-to-resist-reentry-burnup.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

There is more of a risk with ROSAT's re-entry than todays.

Here is the latest update, not very helpful.

Update #9
Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:01:35 PM GMT-1000

As of 9:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 110 mi by 115 mi (175 km by 185 km). Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours.



And a link to a re=entry predictor.
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
Also a twitter feed.
http://twitter.com/#!/UARS_Reentry


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 16:00 GMT | #2244435 |   | Split
So it should crash in some hours then?


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 16:28 GMT | #2244442 |   | Split
They still don't know, but they are saying it has slowed so it could be a bit later.
If it's clear I'm going to try and catch a glimpse of it on one of it's passes.

Also NASA will be fully liable for any damage done.

Under the terms of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the US government retains ownership of the debris and could, if it so wished, seek to take possession of any items found on the ground.

With those ownership rights also comes absolute liability if a piece of UARS were to damage property or injure someone.

"There is something called international responsibility; they're internationally liable," explained Joanne Wheeler of law firm CMS Cameron McKenna, and an expert representative for the UK on the UN Subcommittee for the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.

"The Americans have to retain jurisdiction and control, and that pretty much can be interpreted as ownership. So they own it up there, they own it if it comes down to Earth and they're liable if it crashes into something."



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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 23:16 GMT | #2244624 |   | Split
Here you can see where the satellite is at the moment.


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 23:23 GMT | #2244629 |   | Split
I want it to land near me


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 23:33 GMT | #2244634 |   | Split
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Fritz92 :
Here you can see where the satellite is at the moment.



I have been using that, it's also listed in stellarium if people have that.
Current guess is it could come down in Africa.


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 23:38 GMT | #2244636 |   | Split
Swedish news site said between 4:30 and 10:30 our time, so one hour earlier for Britain.


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Report this post | 23 Sep 2011 23:50 GMT | #2244641 |   | Split
Yeah, French news has gone a bit mental with it too. Thing is nobody can say for sure yet anyway.
That said this has just been announced.

Update #11
Sat, 24 Sep 2011 01:30:46 AM UTC+0200


As of 7 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 90 miles by 95 miles (145 km by 150 km). Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.


http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html
The page will be updated more regularly the closer it gets.

Looks like I'll be asleep, hope it doesn't drop on my Mum.


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